India

May 2026

Redrawing the Substrate Map: Capital, Sovereignty, and the US-India Critical Minerals Axis

The bilateral Critical Minerals Framework signed by the United States and India on the sidelines of the Quad Foreign Ministers' meeting in New Delhi marks a rapid transition from defensive de-risking rhetoric into active, state-backed industrial coordination. By pairing U.S. federal capital - mobilised through FORGE and backed by a $30 billion deployment program - with India's vast mineral reserves and scalable industrial workforce, the pact targets the midstream refining bottleneck that has long given China its geopolitical leverage. The agreement is structurally reinforced by India's concurrent integration into Pax Silica, codifying a new market reality where provenance and political reliability determine asset value.